The Makeup of the Midterms

DSA-affiliated and other left-wing candidates defeated more established and better-funded opponents in several of this primary season’s most closely watched Democratic contests. In Colorado, Melat Kiros defeated 15-term incumbent Dianna DeGette. In New York, Darializa Avila Chevalier and Brad Lander both successfully primaried their respective incumbents, Adriano Espaillat and Dan Goldman. In the Florida Senate race, Angie Nixon defeated Alex Vindman by more than twelve percentage points despite being outspent more than 12:1. Even in certain races without a DSA-aligned candidate, the more left-wing candidate prevailed. In Michigan’s Senate race, Abdul el-Sayed beat Haley Stevens, and in Maine, Graham Platner forced out the sitting governor Janet Mills for the nomination. While neither el-Sayed nor Platner are officially DSA-aligned, both have received Bernie Sanders’ endorsement. The success of DSA-affiliated and left-wing candidates attests to the anti-establishment mood of our current political moment and likely portends a comeback of the progressive legislation from 2018 to 2020, such as the Green New Deal, Medicare for All, and more. 

These high-profile victories, however, do not necessarily represent the broader primary season outcomes. A Brookings study of competitive congressional primaries found that mainstream candidates outperformed their parties’ ideological flanks on both sides. MAGA/Trump Republicans won 26.7% of their races, while progressive Democrats won 17.8%. The study also found that only one of five DSA candidates won in the competitive races examined. The findings suggest that while highly ideological candidates attracted considerable attention, more mainstream candidates continued to win most of these contests. The results also varied considerably by state and district. Individual contests offer a closer look at the different factors shaping these outcomes. Election analysts have credited Republicans’ underperformance in 2022 to weak candidates in competitive races, such as Kari Lake in Arizona and Herschel Walker in Georgia. This cycle, however, Republicans appear to have avoided some of their most extreme and poor candidates. 

In the Minnesota governor’s race, for example, Mike Lindell, of MyPillow and martial law fame, lost to the more moderate candidate Lisa Demuth even after receiving President Trump’s endorsement. The inefficacy of Trump’s endorsement shows that Republican voters are willing to buck him. The result was a notable exception to Trump’s generally strong endorsement record, although one race alone does not establish a broader decline in his influence.

In Tennessee, Rep. Andy Ogles, a prominent House Freedom Caucus member who has promoted anti-immigrant and Christian Nationalist rhetoric, lost to Charlie Hatcher, the state’s former Commissioner of Agriculture, who is still ideologically conservative but rhetorically more restrained. Ogles’ race shows that even primary voters in very conservative districts will still choose the more conventional candidate over candidates that use inflammatory rhetoric. 

While Republicans are unlikely to escape the historic midterm tide against the party in power, their choice to run better candidates will let Republican dollars expand the map and go toward seats where Republicans usually would not be competitive, like New Hampshire. Candidate quality matters down-ballot; in Minnesota, a stronger Republican gubernatorial candidate may help Republicans retain their slim majority in the state house, or at least minimize losses. Moreover, having nominated a sizable share of moderates, Republicans can advance legislation that appeals to a wider base of voters and puts the party in a better position to succeed in 2028. 

Trump and the DSA have influenced nominations in their respective parties this midterm season, and it will be important to watch how they affect Congress and the President’s policy outcomes during Trump’s last two years. Candidate quality will determine whether or not legislators pass legislation and seek compromise with Trump and Republicans in a divided government. 

Image Credit – Wikimedia Commons